2006 - End of Conservatism? I think not!

Many people on both sides of the political spectrum spent much of last year worrying about the imminent collapse of conservatism. In the United States, conservative authors including Richard Viguerie, Pat Buchanan and Jeffrey Hart have claimed the Bush Administration has betrayed true conservatism. Others, notably Ryan Sanger, believe the split between Evangelical social conservatives and Libertarian conservatives will destroy both the conservative movement and the Republican Party, the movements current vehicle of choice. In the United Kingdom, many Tories were worried that after three straight General Election defeats conservatism had lost it's way. In Latin America media confidently predicted a sweep by Chavez-ist leaders that would remake the region into an anti-conservative, anti-capitalist bastion.

Happily, however, we can review 2006 and realise it was not all that bad!

- Although the reelection of Chavez was disappointing (although not unexpected considering the weakness of the opposition), the only hard-left President elected in Latin America was Bolivia's Morales. Mexico elected a responsible centre-right President Felipe Calderon (despite claims from the hard-left PRD of vote-rigging that were rejected by a non-partisan body), while Colombia reelected independent Conservative and US ally Alvaro Uribe in a landslide. In Nicaragua and Ecuador, there are signs that leftist leaders there are looking for pro-growth and pro-US positions, rather than causing havoc like their "good friend" (in the words of Ecuador President Correa) Hugo Chavez.

- Again, although the Republican Party was defeated in the midterm elections, not everyone agrees that this was a rebuff of Conservatism itself. Many believe that the defeat is also due to poor governance by the Republican Congressional Majority, which seemed to be based on power for its own sake, vast pork-barrel spending and huge government intrusions into the lives of US citizens. It is highly likely that if there was a respectable third option in the United States, such as the Liberal Democrats from the United Kingdom, they would have seen a huge number of protest votes. As Wilfred McClay wrote in Commentary Magazine, "The Democratic party won its new majorities largely on the basis of general discontent." Also, those who claim that the disenchantment is with conservatism should remember that the vast majority of seats lost by Republicans were either the more liberal member of the Republican caucus (such as Senator Lincoln Chaffee (RI) or Congressman Bass (NH)) or whose seats were being affected by special circumstances (such as DeLay in TX-22 or Foley in Florida). When you add this to the mismanagement of Iraq, one can't be too surprised for the thumping the GOP received.

- Meanwhile, for the first time in the best part of twenty years, the Tories won a Canadian General Election in a swing against the Liberal corruption in Quebec. The new Prime Minister Harper, showing the way to success for new Conservative leaders, has at least claimed to embrace environmentalism (like David Cameron in the UK and John Key in New Zealand).

- Polling continues to put the Tories ahead of Labour in the United Kingdom. Although the next election does not have to be held until 2010, the chances of a General Election before that time is significant, between Labour's relatively narrow majority in the House and the likely intra-party bickering when Tony Blair lays down the mantle of Prime Minister and passes it to Chancellor Gordon Brown.